The Climate of Science, the Science of Climate

Don't you hate titles like that? I apologize. It's late and I'm cranky.

Two related articles came across the wire the last couple days, this one from RealClearPolitics, and this one from the Weekly Standard. Both of them deal with the "science" of climate change, and how human frailties seem to be creating less-than-objective outcomes. The first article tells the story of Henrik Svensmark, and his theory that perhaps climate change is NOT the result of your Hummer, but instead the result of that gigantic ball of nuclear energy over your head. I know, I know, it sounds absurd when phrased like that, but really, that massive gaseous orb of charged ions (it's the size of the sun, and almost as large!) might just have something to do with it. As author Robert Tracinski notes, however, the important thing isn't the science, it's the way the science is revealed to the media. As he puts it, "If you have a study that you think backs up the global warming dogma, preface it with a press release drawing wildly speculative conclusions from the data. If you have a study that contradicts the global warming dogma, preface it with a press release declaring that no conclusions can be drawn."

The next article regales us with the saga of DR.* Peter Gleick, and his intrepid work to facilitate scientific progress by openly and dispassionately analyzing the data of climate change models to determine the impact of human industrial society on the world's climate falsify an internal "strategy memo" from the Heartland Institute in the hopes of discrediting climate skeptics by classic "attacking the messenger" tactics. Unfortunately (for DR.* Gleick) his memo was sorta on par with Dan Rather's documents about Bush's time in the National Guard, and was quickly picked apart by bloggers like condors on an elderly buffalo in the Mojave.

This leads us, of course, to an important characteristic about science. It is people -- venal, emotional, selfish, and impatient -- who do science. For all the talk about how science can give us answers, and can teach us much, it is critical never to forget that at the end of the day, while there is much in science for us to use, we are also unendingly capable of misusing science to the point that it ceases to be what it claims. This is scientism, and this uniquely modern affliction, wherein science becomes a perversion of itself, must constantly be exposed. The skeptic should hold an honored place in scientific debate; when politicians (!) attempt to sideline the skeptic, there truly is a War on Science. Would only the scientists themselves recognize this.


*B.S. Yale University, M.S., Ph.D. Univ. Cal-Berkeley, etc.etc. 

Internet Piracy in Czech Republic

This article is well worth a read, especially if you are one of those types of people that is highly interested in the relationship between technology and society. Briefly, one of the problems of piracy in Czech Republic concerns the fact that availability of pirated movies and films is so much more accessible than through legal means. This is not an issue of cost; rather, it's an issue of legal avenues to purchase. As one professor points out, here in Czech Republic, you can buy a new DVD (often for considerably more than you would pay for it in Austria or Germany) or you can steal a movie from the internet. That's about it.

Generally speaking, language is not a problem; most people internet-savvy enough to pirate movies speak English, and it's generally very easy to download subtitle files separately anyway (though admittedly, the subtitles are often done by amateurs, and are of varying quality). Nevertheless, one reason for this lack of quality is that there is such a low level of interest in the idea that Czech people (especially, playing to stereotype, young men with disposable income, just like everywhere else) will actually pay for some of these services, if they are provided to them. There is a huge level of marketing Hollywood movies in Czech Republic, but after the movie leaves theaters, there's no way to watch it again, short of paying $25 to $30 for the nice shiny box, and many titles are completely unavailable. It is one of the multiple reasons that the Pirate Party (one of the only, if not the only, truly European political parties) has done relatively well in Czech Republic.

Christian Wulff

The President of Germany has resigned.
Apparently, he was caught getting a loan for a house with terms that were just a little too good to be true.
Can't imagine anything like that ever happening in the US.

I’m dealing with the idea of being a person who has adapted. As an adapted person, when I return to America, people ask me chiefly about the language barrier. The language barrier is significant, and I believe that there are significant problems with economic models that assume that people (especially foreigners) living in a given market have access to “perfect information” so critical to the concept of rational actors in a market environment. Language obliges foreigners to either invest significantly greater amounts of time into hunting down the best deal; alternatively, they pay more than any given product is worth. They also may have considerable non-economic barriers (such as when founding a business, etc.) that the state itself puts up, either intentionally or due to a failure of communication. All of this is worth significant amounts of research, and is thus completely outside of the purview of this ridiculously unscientific essay.

You see, there are other complicating factors dealing with adaptation. The concepts of weights and measures becomes surprisingly difficult to manage, though some of these are easier to manage than others. For instance, buying ham at the supermarket or estimating distances. You find that you “translate” distances, in particular. This is not so bad – a meter is about a yard, and 400 meters is still a quarter-mile, and 10 meters is pretty close to a first down. And once you get used to the idea that 150 grams is about the size of the small cup they give you of deli salads, you learn to know to ask for that much; and a half-kilo is about a pound, in case you need that much ham. (Europeans don’t sell sliced much turkey, or roast beef either. So you eat a lot of ham.)

The worst is temperature. Temperature is complicated. You find that you memorize the scale instead of “translating” it. The yards-meters conversion is pretty close; the Fahrenheit-Celsius conversion is useless.¹ You look for yardsticks: 28° C is 82° F – that’s a pretty easy conversion (switch the 8 and 2!), and that’s pretty warm. Anything higher is just hot. Baking requires the conversion table, but my gas oven has always been pretty sketchy anyway, and so you never really know what temperature it was on any scale, so that doesn’t really matter. Unless you want to bake something.

As for cold, well, that’s when it’s nice to come from Colorado. It never gets as cold here as it does there. One yardstick that helps is that -40° C is -40° F, and almost everybody knows that 0° C is 32° F. The latter figure here is helpful, because that conversion in the footnote is much easier to use when it’s cold – you then figure out that 0° F is about -15° C, and it never gets too much colder than that (two F degrees are about 1 C degree). The -40° C = -40° F conversion is helpful for talking about January in Colorado. It facilitates discussion, though generally not about the wisdom (or lack thereof) of the Fahrenheit scale.

For longer distances, I find that the best thing to do is to measure it in hours. It’s generally the most relevant both in Europe as well as in America, though it carries different cultural implications, especially when you come from the West, and a two-and-a-half-hour trip to the mall is pretty normal. In two and a half hours, I can get from Brno to Poland, Slovakia, Austria, or Prague. All of them are completely different worlds in their own way. But again, those are four more subjects for four more essays. Moreover, of course, you should always make sure that you are on the right train. I had a friend that had a two-and-a-half-hour trip turn into a 10-hour trip due to his mistaken reading of the train schedule, confusing the “destination” station with the “arriving from” station. But I don’t think he’d like me to elaborate too much about that.

1In case you’re wondering, it’s T_C = 5(T_F – 32)÷9

"Just Don't Mention the War"

They've certainly started doing it in Greece.
This article, von den Speigel, discusses two of Greece's media heavyweights, an evening talk-show/news type host, Georgios Trangas and a cartoonist, Stathis Stavropoulos, and their references (repeatedly) to Germans-as-Nazis in regard to the crisis. Low class.

This article by Christopher Caldwell, (mercifully in English for those of you dismayed by the above link) is another very good discussion of the problems of "last time with tanks, this time with banks" attitudes in the Eurozone, particularly in Greece. It points out the Kanzlerin's tough position of trying to please both her domestic constituency, livid at the prospect of subsidizing pensions of more spendthrift nations, as well as Europeans (some in Germany as well) nervous about Germany being so clearly in the driver's seat.

One argument, however, that I don't hear very often from people on either side is the fact that at the outset, Greece was so ambitious to join the Eurozone in the first place. The Greek public was more supportive of joining the Eurozone than most other countries' populations, and presumably expected that it would be all gain, and no pain. Of course, the only reason they qualified was because Goldman Sachs rigged their books, but I suppose they felt they could secure a little extra without any effort.

For the Greeks, it was a bit like a faddish diet pill. "Just look! I only have to change the color of my money, and I'll be good to go! No more exercise plans, no more dieting! I've got Eurotrim® now, and just look at my figure!"

Well, there apparently were some inconvenient side effects when consumed not in accordance with the instructions on the label. So now the Greeks are blaming the pharmacy, the manufacturer, their doctor, the guy in the pub who gave them a second opinion, and their pet dog, but can't seem to realize that maybe they themselves might take some responsibility for their plight. And it's going to get uglier.

Entrepreneurs

This link tells the unlikely story of Petr Šourek, the founder of Corrupt Tour. Šourek's company offers tours of Prague and the Czech Republic's most (in)famous examples of kickbacks, bribes, no-bid contracts, and the like. You can also take a tour of the "nests" of Czech Republic, and see the villas where lobbyists and some of the shadier "byznysmeni" live, kinda like those trips through Hollywood where you can see the movie stars' homes.

According to the article, Šourek hopes to cover the costs, though he doesn't really expect to make a profit on his new venture. It's based more on the principle of bringing attention to the problems of corruption in Czech Republic, a country that Transparency International continues to give poor (and worsening) scores, especially compared to some of the other countries in our neighborhood.

One thing that is interesting about this concerns the way that Šourek is going about this whole "civil society" "raising awareness" "mobilization" thing. Much of the poli sci literature dealing with this sort of thing these days is dedicated to ideas about "policy entrepreneurs," mobilizing interest groups, and securing accountability though the ubiquitous "NGO." Discussions about civil society in this context sometimes exclude the idea that for-profit entities can actually contribute to a stronger civil society, and that volunteerism is the chief indicator of a robust civil society. We focus on non-profit NGOs, but our policy entrepreneurs obviously don't NEED to be in the non-profit sector. Indeed, it would be interesting to look at how company cultures in foreign firms affect Czech ideas about what role intermediate institutions -- either for-profit or not -- should play. Moreover, home-grown innovative initiative such as this are often the most sustainable, and it seems quite reasonable to believe that a for-profit institution might significantly impact government accountability and "raise awareness" of such problems. It will be another indicator of the relative growing strength of civil society if this becomes a viable commercial enterprise, and if Mr Šourek can do well by doing good, more power to him.