More British Politics

This BBC site has a handy-dandy super-techno seat calculator, factoring in Labour's districting advantage. (See an interesting article on this phenomenon here.) It doesn't explain how exactly Labour gets such a seat advantage, but it does show how the seats should shake out based on the polls. Moreover, it shows the possibility of a "hung" Parliament. Unfortunately, it only shows results for four groups -- Labour, Conservatives (Tories, for those of you who commented earlier -- you know who you are!), Liberal Democrats, and "Other." These "Other" seats, including those from Northern Ireland, may become very important after the vote. For example, the Ulster Unionist Party has agreed to run on the same ticket as the Conservatives. Moreover, due to the first-past-the-post system, the national vote percentages may not reflect the BBC's guide -- it is as though Rasmussen would take a poll in the US showing that nationwide, the GOP received 55% of the 2010 Congressional vote, and therefore would end up with some fixed percentage of Congress (though not 55%. As Labour enjoys the districting advantage, to follow this analogy through, it would be as though the GOP would receive 65% or 45% of the seats.)

In any case, it is a delightfully complicated system, and it will probably be shelved soon in favor of a more PR-like (proportional representation) system, particularly if the Lib Dems do well (The Lib Dems have argued, for their own interests, for a long time about the benefits of PR). In the long term, this change will likely lead to a larger government sector in the UK -- PR systems and coalition-building tend to lead to larger government, due to the required amount of "payoffs" to minority partners on the coalition. It also would represent a further homogenizing of politics in Europe, which would be tragic for anyone who claims to celebrate diversity.