Tůma Throws his Hat in the Ring

Zdeněk Tůma, the former head of the Czech National Bank (think of the US' National Reserve) has been persuaded by Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg, one of the leaders of TOP 09, (a relatively new, market-oriented party) into running for the mayor of Prague. At first glimpse, he has a rather good chance. TOP 09 won only one kraj, or district, of the 13 in Czech Republic; the others were split by the Social Democrats (ČSSD) and the Civic Democrats (ODS). However, the one kraj that TOP 09 won was Prague.

The city is quite a bit wealthier than the rest Czech Republic, and for that reason has always been considered as a bastion of strength for ODS. However, massive and wasteful infrastructure projects and the widespread appearance of corruption has seriously weakened the party both internally and among voters. This accounted for the strong showing by TOP 09 in the previous elections, and Tůma, a well-respected figure among policy elites, could be a strong candidate. However, he has never held any elective office, and so his campaign skills are undoubtedly weak.

Nevertheless, if he campaigns without too many mistakes, he should be able to attract votes, particularly if TOP 09 agrees to support him internally. Moreover, in (relatively) recent polls, Czechs nationally seemed to prefer the technocratic approach to politics, as evidenced by the popularity of Jan Fischer's cabinet. (Part of this, of course, is due to Fischer's preference to avoid taking controversial positions, due to his peculiar ascendancy to the position of Prime Minister, as a compromise between ODS and ČSSD after an ODS-led government collapsed in a vote of no confidence.) Tůma was part of this technocratic leadership; indeed, according to the aktualne.cz article linked to above, he was not even a member of TOP 09 before Minister Schwarzenberg asked him about running.

If he wins (and we still have ample time to watch this race), this would further cement TOP 09's presence in Czech politics. The Mayoralty of Prague is a disproportionately influential position, much in the same way that Mayor Giuliani was as mayor of New York (even before 9/11). A banker, instead of a career politician, also furthers TOP 09's reputation as a serious, budget- and finance-oriented party. This will in turn further alienate some more left-oriented voters and voters in rural regions, who already are skeptical about the machinations of Prague politics, but could strengthen TOP 09's hand among professionals nationwide.