A Little Context on the Czech Elections

This article from the Financial Times discusses the recent electoral fortunes of the KSČM (Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia) in regional and Senate elections, and points out correctly that the unreformed party garnered 20% of the votes nationwide. This is undoubtedly a problem, but it is more of a flaring up of a chronic problem then a dramatic new shift in thinking in Czech politics, and least with respect to the KSČM. First, there are regional disparities of where the Left did particularly well; second, there is the general issue of low turnout; finally, there is the issue of many more people voting for a variety of small parties, very few of which cleared the 5% hurdle to enter the regional assemblies.

 

15% for the Communists is "normal" in the Czech Republic, and the place where KSČM did best, around Ústí nad Labem, is a place where unemployment is high, and everybody who could move away for better work has probably already done so. The people left in these areas are usually not known for entrepreneurial enthusiasm or strong commitment to the free market system. Indeed, these old industrial regions are places that have had trouble throughout the post-November* ('89) era; after the change, people realized that ugly inefficient factories that produced a bunch of stuff nobody wanted would be difficult to privatize. The Communists' victory around Karlovy Vary (Carlsbad) is perhaps more surprising, but the Communists won "only" 23% of the votes, and so the margin of victory over the Social Democrats (ČSSD) ends up meaning only one seat in the assembly. The biggest question overhanging this region concerns the total collapse of ODS since 2004-2008, when it had an absolute majority in the assembly, to now, when it can barely scrape together enough votes to enter.

Still, while the Communists increased their share of the vote across the country, it frequently came at the expense of the Social Democrats as well as ODS, (the Civic Democrats). Low turnout overall tends to benefit small parties, and there is a huge level of general disgust with the level of corruption both real and imagined on the part of ODS and ČSSD. For "normal" people, disgust at the political scene dissuades them from voting; for the ever-mobilized unemployed and geriatrics that constitute KSČM's electorate, disgust motivates them. Nationwide, voting saw about 35-40% turnout; this further amplifies the Communists' share.

The final observation concerns the growth of other small parties and coalitions. While the unpopular (if necessary) measures undertaken by the rightish coalition in Prague have hurt ODS at the polls, one of their coalition partners, TOP 09, actually saw much of its influence grow at the regional level, albeit not on the level that KSČM enjoyed. 

The Left in Czech Republic is undoubtedly running with momentum now, and it remains to be seen if ČSSD will abandon its agreement never to work with the Communists. However, it is also the case that this will be a wake-up call to the current coalition parties to explain why their austerity programs are necessary and what benefits Czechs will see in the long run. It also sends a message that at some point, Czechs are willing to through their lot in with KSČM (which is hardly a clean-hands party itself) if the others don't start purging their own crooked people. 

It's going to be an ugly next couple years.

*"Polistopadová" literally translates as "after November," but for Czechs, it's perfectly obvious which November they are referring to.