Cuba Libre?

We're seeing news reports that the old fatherly figure of Cuba, Fidel Castro, is ailing, and has turned over his régime to kid brother Raul. This adds a little extra spice to the world's geopolitical goulash, doesn't it?
There are three ways this can go. First, is that the Dear Leader makes a full recovery from intestinal surgery, and Raul steps aside politely, status quo ante. I find this unlikely. If we know that Fidel Castro is ailing, it must be serious. No recovery, at this point, will be "full." His age alone means he's fatigued (as in tired, not "clad in military uniform"), and we have seen his health degrade over the past few years. He certainly no longer strikes fear into his immediate subordinates, who are already doubtlessly preparing alliances and intrigues to take power in some sort of coup. This would of course lead to chaos, but might lead to a people-power sort of democratic revolution. The civil society is more homogenous and more 'civil' (in that liberal, government-savvy sort of way) than in Iraq, and may even come to power.

Second, that the old man dies on the operating table, or at least never regain power, which leads to two possiblities. Will we see a Khrushchev after this Stalin, or will we see a Havel after Husak?

I tend to believe, and certainly hope, for the latter. I don't forsee a crackdown being effective, nor do I see a peaceful despotic transition, as happened in North Korea. Cuba is simply not isolated enough, and the Cuban people have been preparing too long for this time.

We shall see. Cuba Libre!