Elections, etc.

If voting were held today, who would you support?
I'm starting to gravitate towards a couple of people.....
Also, if voting were held today, wouldn't you be confused?

Voting IS being held today in France. That oughta be interesting. I think that Sarkozy will make the runoff, but will poll less strongly than anyone thinks.  This is because there will be quite a few people who, in the privacy of the voting booth, will vote for Jean-Marie Le Pen, but who have claimed to be supporting Sarkozy in the polls.  I think Segolene Royal will make it into the second round; if the centrist candidate, Francois Bayreu makes it, look for him to pick up all of Sego's supporters, which might be enough to put him in the president's chair.
Voting in France is a strategic process.  If it can be compared to the American system, it's as though everyone votes in everyone else's primary, then there's a run-off between the top two votegetters. (This is a very imperfect analogy, I know.)  In either case, the Socialist candidate traditionally runs off against the RpR (Rally for the Republic) candidate.  In 2002, Chirac (RpR) handily beat the far-right candidate (Le Pen), because the French for some reason were appalled at the idea of the first fascist in the Elysee Palace since the Second World War. The French have written two constitutions since then, so it must have been a long time ago.
One aspect of the French system is that it mobilizes "primary" (energetic) voters, who then usually vote "lesser of two evils" in the second round.  The trick is to get your guy (or girl, this year) into the second round.  This is why candidates like Le Pen tend to be over-represented in the first round.  While voter turnout and GOTV drives are less common in Europe, I wouldn't be surprised to see this phenomenon in future elections in France. 

Sarkozy's base seems to be quite energized, as well as Sego's, which bodes well for them.  I think that voters scared of Sarkozy (he's not known for his cheeriness and warmth, a bit like the media portrayal of Dick Cheney) will eventually calculate that either way, Royal or Bayreu (who is running as a "none of the above" candidate) will end up in the second round, and will vote for either of them.  In either case, if Bayreu can make the first cut, he has a very good chance of winning the second round. It will depend of course on the campaign.  If he runs against Royal, Sarkozy will need to play a little to the right, but not so much to alienate centrist voters who voted for Bayreu.  If Bayreu wins, expect more of Sarkozy as a hard-line, law-and-order candidate, since the socialists and the centrists will likely support Bayreu.

The wild card is Le Pen. If the Left and Center cancel each other out, Le Pen could sneak through again. I doubt this will happen this time though; the "protest vote" contingent can vote Bayreu, who is a more platable alternative.  In the end, I think we see a Sego-Sarko matchup, which will strongly affect the direction of the EU, and US-French relations.  Royal has inserted a fair amount of populist anti-American rhetoric into her campaign, and Sarkozy has been more of a supporter of le liberalisme.  I personally think that France will be better off and ultimately more peaceful with Sarkozy, but in France, "socialism" is not a dirty word.  I don't doubt that Sarkozy is an heir of RfR and de Gaulle, and would hardly be a "Bush stooge."  But it would be a shame for France and the US if a candidate running on a ticket of anti-Americanism and anti-market-economics were to become its next president.
France, like it or not, is an important nation for the US. And it is in America's interst, as well as France's, that its economy is strong, dynamic, and oriented to the future.