The coalition starts to crack

Here in Czecholand, the three-party rightish coalition has started to come apart. The smallest party, named "Public Affairs," started out as a local party in Prague which was then assisted by a massive infusion of cash by highly questionable "byznysman" Vít Barta, and entered the Chamber of Deputies in the 2010 election, running (ironically) on a platform of transparency within the party and exposing corruption without. Originally, the idea was that they would have a huge online presence, and members of the party could vote online about various reforms and policies the party should support. This was probably a welcome and necessary development, as one particularly sleazy billionaire/lobbyist, Roman Janoušek, was recently linked to an impressive level of kickbacks from Prague's City Hall for his friendship with members in the largest ruling party, ODS. 

Now, however, the Public Affairs party itself is starting to come apart, as Barta and one of his confidants have already been found guilty on corruption charges; Barta, however, has refused to leave politics, and will run for the Senate from one of the 14 districts in these lands. Utterly discredited, it is primarily a face-saving measure on Barta's part.

Nevertheless, he leaves a party that has since decided to go into opposition; it has basically turned into Vít's People vs. one of the vice-chairs of the party, Karolína Peake, and her "rebels." It looks likely that Peake's people will be enough to keep the coalition together, albeit with 103 votes out of 200 rather than the 118 the coalition had enjoyed previously.

The situation is frustrating and disappointing for some of the less-political big stars of Czech business, such as Roman Jančura, who pointed out that there was a huge opportunity for a responsible right-of-center coalition to govern with broad public support, but the level of corruption in all three ruling parties has forced voters back into the arms of the populist (and likely equally corrupt) Social Democrats. The combination of corruption, unpopular reforms in education, such as a major overhaul of the universities, strongly mobilized opposition from government workers unions, and general austerity measures have fueled voter resentment and distrust, and it remains an open question about what future elections will bring. 

One option is a resurgence of the Green Party and the Christian Democrats, who by virtue of being extra-parliamentary at this time, have avoided much of the scandal, though it is unclear whether or not they could clear the 5% threshold and re-enter the Chamber. The Greens, a party with more than their share of dissidents from the previous era, may have to run more on nostalgia, though they are strong in local politics in Brno and Prague. The Christian Democrats, on the other hand, are a firmly Moravian party, and in the highly secularized Czech Republic, that inconvenient name costs them a great deal of votes. Another wild-card is the Pirate Party, which attracts young left-libertarian voters who previously would have voted for the long-defunct Freedom Union, though it is unclear to what extent they have articulated any particular economic policy, or have detailed policies on anything else, for that matter.

It is definitely possible that this coalition will hang on until the next elections; however, with the main conservative party, ODS, in third place in opinion polls behind the Social Democrats and the (unreformed) Communists, it seems unlikely that the Right will stay in power for long.