The Czech Presidential Election

The big Czech presidential election is underway, and due to other pressing concerns your correspondent has not yet addressed the issue in detail; additionally, this posting will be likely too short to be of much good as well. Such is the nature of things. But at least my legions of dear readers and adoring fans will have something to gnaw on for a bit.

The way it works in the Czechs' first ever direct election of the President is somewhat similar to the French way, in that the top two winners in the first round go on to a runoff, in this case next weekend. In the end, there were nine candidates on the ballot, and polls leading up to the election forecast a strong showing by Miloš Zeman and Jan Fischer, both of whom are former Prime Ministers. Both were also members of the Communist Party at some point in their lives; Zeman in the late '60s (after the Prague Spring), and Fischer during the late '80s. As Prime Minister, Zeman was a member of the Czech Social Democrats; however, Zeman left the ČSSD some years ago to found his own political party, and dedicate his life to screwing his former party. Fischer took over as Prime Minister in a technocratic caretaker cabinet after being head of the Czech Statistical Bureau. One opinion poll leading up to the election showed Zeman in first place with about 23%, Fischer with 21%, Vladimir Franz and Karel Schwarzenberg in third and fourth place (at about 12% and 10%), followed by the candidate of the ČSSD (Czech Social Democrats), Jiří Dienstbier, Jr.

The winner of tonight's round and punching his ticket to the runoff, Miloš Zeman, has a reputation for being (somewhat) incorruptible personally, if not a little bit sleazy. At one point in the '90s, some Czech gangster was even recorded discussing which politicians could be bribed; Zeman was one of the few who couldn't at any price. According to the guy, Zeman "just wants to be popular with people." He is kind of a chubby guy, and legendary for his alleged alcohol consumption, and definitely is a bit of a populist. But he's also positioned himself on the left side of the Czech political spectrum, while at the same time doing everything possible to hinder the Czech Social Democrats and the Communist Party. Zeman's party is not much without him, but it would be an impressive capstone to his political career.

The second-place candidate, however, was a bit of a surprise. The main "story" of this evening is the upset of Karel Schwarzenberg over Jan Fischer, and Schwarzenberg's subsequent advancement to the next round. (Journalists love the horse-race!) Schwarzenberg is nicknamed "the Duke," not because of any particular affinity for John Wayne in this part of the world, but, well, because he is one. He possesses and deploys an aristocratic air, and one reason Czechs find him to be so attractive as a politician is because he is wholly free of corruption. This in part is due to the widespread assumption that he is far wealthier than the people who would attempt to bribe him. His first obstacle to winning a bedroom in Prague Castle is his age -- the Duke is 75, and looks older than that. On the other hand, his opponent is 68, and Zeman isn't exactly known for his healthy lifestyle either. More difficult to overcome will be his association with the current government, in which he is Minister of Foreign Affairs. The government is extremely unpopular right now, and the previous election, for one-third of the Senate in October, showed that voters are champing at the bit to vote for the left. And while Schwarzenberg has been reliably moderate throughout his political career, he remains to the left of Zeman, and it could be that voters are willing to put Zeman "na hrad" -- to the castle.

Ultimately, Fischer is probably the most disappointed tonight, as it may signal the end of his political career. Czech voters ultimately settled on two of the more colorful characters in Czech politics (though the artist Vladimír Franz and his quixotic campaign was undoubtedly the most colorful in a literal sense), rather than the statistician/bureaucrat. The young Dienstbier, who was born in Washington, DC and whose father was a dissident, probably has positioned himself very well à la Paul Ryan, and Franz will probably just go back to being Vladimír Franz. It will be interesting to see more complete exit polls if they become available; my hunch is in the voting booth, that many of the people who said "Franz" during polling strategically realized that Schwarzenberg was the guy most likely to get to the second round, and that ČSSD was far more effective at mobilizing its people for Dienstbier than they were given credit for. But for that, we'll need a chat with some experts.