P.J. O'Rourke.....

has a new article based on his intrepid experience in Afghanistan. He is now, of course, an expert.

Yuval's Five Books

A while ago, per Matthew Continetti, you correspondent indulgently drew up a list of ten books that have a profound influence on him. I now discover that the ever-wise and always intriguing Yuval (I've decided that the Wunderkind from Hillsborough no longer needs a last name -- think "Cher" or "Pelé") has been published on the Five Books website, which I'm sure much be difficult for him since he reads five books a day, and limiting himself must be rather nightmarish. Yuval fleshes out his selections in erudite, comprehensive detail, but his conversation with Jonathan Rauch remains accessible.

Yuval's interpretation of Hayek's The Road to Serfdom, and of Hayek generally, is undoubtedly somewhat provocative for some people, though rather spot on. It might have helped his argument if he had supplemented his interpretation with a few quotes from another of Hayek's more polemical works, Why I am Not a Conservative. Yuval only touches on this tangentially, when he points out that Hayek himself described himself as "an Old Whig."

All in all, it is well worth the time to read Yuval's analysis, and he whets the appetite with the books he proposes.

A VERY "Realpolitik" Analysis of the Global Warming Debate

John Rosenthal, writing in the Weekly Standard, offers up this damning article on Germany's negotiations on various climate change agreements. In sum, he points out that one of the main rationales for using 1990 as a benchmark year for carbon emissions was that it gave European nations as well as Australia, a profound advantage. Why? Well, much of Germany's post-1990 carbon reduction is the result of shuttering extraordinarily filthy and inefficient East German industries. France, because the majority of its power is generated by nuclear reactors, is also well below any targets, and Australia, which signed on to Kyoto only after John Howard left, was allowed to use its 1990 brush-clearing exercises (basically, burning the Outback) as "emissions" in order to set its benchmark substantially higher than it would have been had the nation only measured its industrial emissions.
In sum, Rosenthal makes a compelling case both against Kyoto (and its Copenhagen successor), and the tactics of negotiation on all sides. Whether European leaders believe in their hearts that emissions lead to climate change is irrelevant to the fact that these treaties would be disproportionately devastating for the USA, and likely would have turned out much differently if they were negotiated with a view to the future, rather than cynically abusing the past.

David Cameron's New Gig

This is a pretty childish post, but when I first saw this picture from Conservative Home, I couldn't help but think... mmmm, Philip Morris, now available intravenously! As it turns out, he's holding town meetings, and this represents a shift away from the typical activities of Prime Ministers, and according to the blog posting, is a smart tactic.

Tůma Throws his Hat in the Ring

Zdeněk Tůma, the former head of the Czech National Bank (think of the US' National Reserve) has been persuaded by Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg, one of the leaders of TOP 09, (a relatively new, market-oriented party) into running for the mayor of Prague. At first glimpse, he has a rather good chance. TOP 09 won only one kraj, or district, of the 13 in Czech Republic; the others were split by the Social Democrats (ČSSD) and the Civic Democrats (ODS). However, the one kraj that TOP 09 won was Prague.

The city is quite a bit wealthier than the rest Czech Republic, and for that reason has always been considered as a bastion of strength for ODS. However, massive and wasteful infrastructure projects and the widespread appearance of corruption has seriously weakened the party both internally and among voters. This accounted for the strong showing by TOP 09 in the previous elections, and Tůma, a well-respected figure among policy elites, could be a strong candidate. However, he has never held any elective office, and so his campaign skills are undoubtedly weak.

Nevertheless, if he campaigns without too many mistakes, he should be able to attract votes, particularly if TOP 09 agrees to support him internally. Moreover, in (relatively) recent polls, Czechs nationally seemed to prefer the technocratic approach to politics, as evidenced by the popularity of Jan Fischer's cabinet. (Part of this, of course, is due to Fischer's preference to avoid taking controversial positions, due to his peculiar ascendancy to the position of Prime Minister, as a compromise between ODS and ČSSD after an ODS-led government collapsed in a vote of no confidence.) Tůma was part of this technocratic leadership; indeed, according to the aktualne.cz article linked to above, he was not even a member of TOP 09 before Minister Schwarzenberg asked him about running.

If he wins (and we still have ample time to watch this race), this would further cement TOP 09's presence in Czech politics. The Mayoralty of Prague is a disproportionately influential position, much in the same way that Mayor Giuliani was as mayor of New York (even before 9/11). A banker, instead of a career politician, also furthers TOP 09's reputation as a serious, budget- and finance-oriented party. This will in turn further alienate some more left-oriented voters and voters in rural regions, who already are skeptical about the machinations of Prague politics, but could strengthen TOP 09's hand among professionals nationwide.